Data insights
Will the next NZ ETS auctions sell units?
The chance each of the next two government auctions sells any units, from today’s price, the auction floor and how past auctions have gone. Updated weekly.
The next two auctions
The NZU price has to be above the auction floor on the day for any units to sell.
- Updated
- 12 Nov 2026
- Prices to
- 30 Oct 2026
Next auction
1 December 2026
<1%
chance it sells any units
- Auction floor price
- $71
- NZU price on 30 Oct
- $48.00
- Rise needed to reach the floor
- +48%
- Likely price range on auction day
- $43–$53
The one after
12 March 2027
1%
chance it sells any units
- Auction floor price
- $75
- NZU price on 30 Oct
- $48.00
- Rise needed to reach the floor
- +56%
- Likely price range on auction day
- $37–$63
How the estimate works
The chance an auction sells units is the chance the price is above the floor on the day (step 2), multiplied by the chance bids then beat the reserve (step 3).
It assumes no big policy surprise before the auction. Government decisions on NZ ETS settings have moved the price more than anything else.
- 01
Possible prices on auction day
I take the NZU price moves of the past three years over the same number of weeks as there are until the auction, and apply them to today’s price. That gives a spread of possible prices on auction day. The likely price range shown above covers 80% of them.
- 02
Chance the price is above the floor
No units can be sold below the auction’s floor price, so the next step is the share of that spread at or above the floor.
- 03
Chance bids beat the reserve
Even above the floor, bids must also beat a confidential reserve price, which stops units selling well below the market price. In past auctions held with the price above the floor, units sold 69% of the time.
Price against the auction floor
Since 2024 the floor has largely sat above the market price, and auctions have gone unsold.
- NZU price
- Auction floor price
- Likely price range
- Next two auctions
How the method would have done since 2021
These are backcasts: the method run on past auctions, using only what was known 12 weeks before each one. Most misses were in 2023, when the price was above the floor but bids didn’t meet the confidential reserve. Estimates published live, from 12 Nov 2026, are logged below.
- auctions it rated more likely than not to sell units did
- 8 of 12
- auctions it rated unlikely to sell units didn’t
- 9 of 11
| Auction | Chance | Result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||
| September 2026 | 5% | Not cleared | ||
| June 2026 | 1% | Not cleared | ||
| March 2026 | <1% | Not cleared | ||
| 2025 | ||||
| December 2025 | 13% | Not cleared | ||
| September 2025 | 12% | Not cleared | ||
| June 2025 | 14% | Not cleared | ||
| March 2025 | 18% | Not cleared | ||
| 2024 | ||||
| December 2024 | 29% | Partly cleared | ||
| September 2024 | 15% | Not cleared | ||
| June 2024 | 15% | Not cleared | ||
| March 2024 | 43% | Partly cleared | ||
| 2023 | ||||
| December 2023 | 58% | Not cleared | ||
| September 2023 | 82% | Not cleared | ||
| June 2023 | 82% | Not cleared | ||
| March 2023 | 90% | Not cleared | ||
| 2022 | ||||
| December 2022 | 89% | Cleared | ||
| September 2022 | 86% | Cleared | ||
| June 2022 | 86% | Cleared | ||
| March 2022 | 83% | Cleared | ||
| 2021 | ||||
| December 2021 | 80% | Cleared | ||
| September 2021 | 67% | Cleared | ||
| June 2021 | 67% | Cleared | ||
| March 2021 | 50% | Cleared | ||
Estimates published on this page
The chance each auction sells any units, as published in each weekly update. Every update is logged, so the record can be checked against what happens. Pick an auction to see how its chance has moved.
Auction on 1 Dec 2026, floor price $71.
| Published | Prices to | Current NZU price | ChanceChance that auction sells units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | $48.00 | <1% |
For what’s driving supply, the stockpile and the price, see the NZ ETS market outlook.
Sources: NZU prices from github.com/theecanmole/nzu (public domain). Auction data from etsauctions.govt.nz notices and results; Climate Change (Auctions, Limits, and Price Controls for Units) Regulations. The method, code and full record of past estimates are available on GitHub. Estimates are free to reuse with credit to Kapiti Climate (CC BY 4.0). Indicative estimates for information only, not financial advice.